競馬オッズから単勝勝負

The probability that the No. 1 popular horse win is around about 30%.
In the No. 1 popular odds 2.0 times
When No. 2 popular odds of 4.0 times
The probability that the No. 1 popular horse win What percent?

One full year of data has been registered.
Probability to win on the basis of the data, to calculate the recovery rate.

No. 1 and to continue to buy those popular 2.0 times to 3.7 times.
After hitting and exit.
I bet the next multiple of the amount of money When disconnected.
Also remove six consecutive times to end.
Well, the recovery rate will how much?